As we look ahead to the future cinema listings, the film arrangements during the May Day holiday are always highly anticipated. With high hopes, 11 movies were scheduled for release during this period, keeping numerous cinephiles eagerly waiting. However, by the end of the May Day schedule, only seven titles remained active on the silver screens, with four being withdrawn, exceeding a withdrawal rate of one-third.
In mid-April, news about Universal Studios deciding to pull the action movie “Stunt Crazy” from the May Day slot and reschedule it for mid-May shocked fans. Following this, “Rescue at the Furious Sea,” which lacked sufficient buzz, also opted out. Next, Light Chaser Animation’s “Little Pretty” and “Nothing That Hot Pot Can’t Solve,” which had been in theaters for a few days, announced a temporary halt to their screenings.
This wave of “withdrawals” is not unprecedented. Earlier in the Spring Festival schedule, several movies including “Rocking the Sun Together” also adopted the same strategy. The rapidly changing market left only a few films out of many competing.
Analysing the reasons, this trend of withdrawal may stem from the intense level of competition within the period and predictions about the market performance of the films themselves. For instance, “Stunt Crazy” and “Rescue at the Furious Sea” prudently avoided the dense competition of the May Day schedule, while the hesitation shown by “Little Pretty” and “Nothing That Hot Pot Can’t Solve” reflects uncertainty in market promotion strategies.
In the fierce battle of the May Day schedule, some films attempted to capture their core audience through limited screenings and hoped to expand their influence through word-of-mouth. “Nothing That Hot Pot Can’t Solve” even went a step further with a large-scale screening well in advance and a series of creative marketing collaborations, striving to make its mark in the audience market.
Recently, “Little Pretty” and “Nothing That Hot Pot Can’t Solve” actively carried out limited screenings and adopted a range of promotional strategies, such as visiting colleges to attract young audiences, and spreading positive reviews actively through internet platforms. Similar to other domestic films that have successfully achieved box office returns through such activities, these two movies also tried to emulate that success.
Unfortunately, neither film managed to garner widespread acclaim or achieve substantial box office results as expected. Despite official Weibo accounts frequently highlighting the films’ elements of “pure love,” “sadomasochistic romance,” “suspense,” and “humor,” they failed to form a strong word-of-mouth among viewers. Reflected in presale data, both “Little Pretty” and “Nothing That Hot Pot Can’t Solve” performed disappointingly, especially “Little Pretty,” which had poor presale results and ultimately had to announce its withdrawal. In contrast, “Nothing That Hot Pot Can’t Solve” proceeded with its official release, enduring the May Day holiday despite not meeting its box office expectations.
The reasons for the failure of these two movies are different. For the animated movie “A Chinese Ghost Story” based on a classic literary work, the competitive animation movie market during the Labor Day holiday period increased the overlap of the audience and amplified the deficiencies in the film’s IP popularity. As for “No Problem That Can’t Be Solved by Hot Pot”, the problem was that its early previews received a mediocre response, and it failed to turn the tide after its official release. The movie’s continuously declining score on Douban proved that an average reputation is not sufficient for a script that focuses on intelligence and fun.
Despite the sluggish market, film producers often attribute the failure of their films to reach expectations to external environmental factors. For example, “No Problem That Can’t Be Solved by Hot Pot” announced its withdrawal on May 5th, blaming external conditions, claiming that the withdrawal was to meet the needs of a broader audience. Earlier films like “Shake The Sun with Us” and “Mr. Red Carpet” also expressed similar stances, claiming that choosing a new release date was to better communicate with and satisfy the audience’s needs.
These movies ultimately face a key question: is withdrawing from the box office really beneficial for the success of the film? Essentially, this question is not just about the effectiveness of the withdrawal strategy, it’s a question judged by the market, namely whether the box office slump is fundamentally a scheduling issue or a problem with the film itself. In other words, movies that have gone through withdrawal and rescheduling provide a market example of the answer to this question.
For the new work by director Han Yan, “Shake The Sun with Us”, it was deemed a daring move by many industry experts to choose the Chinese New Year period for its release. Han Yan’s previous “Life Trilogy” films have a place in the Chinese film industry, with not only good reputation but also notable commercial success. However, scheduling a film focused on the theme of illness during the festive Chinese New Year was indeed a risky decision. Coupled with this year’s generally high scores for the Lunar New Year films, it further weakened the competitive edge of “Shake The Sun with Us”. Despite receiving many positive reviews, its market performance remained dim. Until the withdrawal on February 14th, the film’s screening rate had dropped to a low of about 4.5%. Against this backdrop, rescheduling the film’s release to just before the Qingming Festival became a timely adjustment. Since its re-release on March 30th, it took about a week to break the 200 million yuan (RMB) box office barrier, shedding the predicted “just over 100 million” label from the Spring Festival period.
In stark contrast, “Mr. Red Carpet” has never been able to break through the 100 million mark. Similar to the experience of “No Problem That Can’t Be Solved by Hot Pot,” which had been rescheduled once, “Mr. Red Carpet” also repeatedly fumbled with its release dates. Despite going through the pain of two reschedulings, it still failed to make a splash in the market. If the poor box office performance during the Spring Festival period can be attributed to the pressure from other three comedy movies, then the lackluster performance after the rescheduling is difficult to explain with existing theories. On its re-release on March 15th, the film’s opening day box office was only 2.458 million yuan, not only unable to challenge new movies like “Zhou Chu Removes Three Evils” and “Dune 2”, but even falling short of long-continued films such as “The Twentieth” that had been released for over a month. “Mr. Red Carpet” ended its run in such a weak momentum, with a cumulative box office locked in at 94.073 million yuan, and the film producers only taking in about 33.858 million yuan, resulting in an apparent loss of over 100 million yuan.
In reality, situations like “Mr. Red Carpet,” where a turnaround is not possible, are more in line with the current norm of movie withdrawal. Whether it is “The Super Family” that fled the 2022 Spring Festival season or “China Ping Pong: The Counterstrike” that withdrew from the 2023 Spring Festival season, neither were able to avoid a head-to-head confrontation and earn an excess return. The former stagnated at the 300 million yuan threshold amid questioning voices during the following summer season, while the latter struggled to climb to 100 million yuan in box office after a month-long delay. It is evident that reversing fortunes after withdrawal is rare. Choosing to withdraw during a competitive release period and then unexpectedly breaking out in a “make-up exam” is quite uncommon; if a film can perform steadily after re-release, this is already a stroke of good fortune amidst misfortune. Reviewing the movies withdrawing from the upcoming Labor Day release slate, works like “Little Pretty” that withdrew early still have some market potential to play out, as their materials have not been fully released, word-of-mouth is not yet established, and the distributor still has room to adjust strategy. By comparison, the prospects for “No Hotpot Can’t Solve” which experienced the entire Labor Day cycle seems less bright.
The dynamic changes in the film industry are always a topic of close concern for film fans and industry insiders. Recently, a phenomenon worth discussing is the general trend of movie withdrawal. For suspense-driven films, mining gold becomes a significant challenge after losing the element of mystery. Moreover, if a movie wants to climb in ratings after a low initial score, it undoubtedly needs a large amount of publicity funds, which represents a substantial expense for the eighteen production companies behind it.
In fact, in the long run, movie withdrawal is not a panacea for saving films; it is more akin to an expensive new beginning. If the team itself does not have sufficient skills to solve the problem, then even with a chance to re-release, the outcome is often just failure in a different form.
It is intriguing to note that this industry trend of chasing “an extra life” actually stems from the general craving for popular release periods. These periods are coveted not only by filmmakers but also become important due to audience anticipation. Data shows that China’s movie market box office is increasingly concentrating during popular periods, especially the Spring Festival and summer seasons, which now account for more than half of the annual box office.
Of more concern is the fact that a large number of moviegoers only visit the cinema once a year, and these single-viewing users play a key role in supporting blockbusters. As more people choose to go to the cinema during long holidays, a mutual reinforcement cycle between film market and viewing habits has developed, strengthening the industry’s dependence on major release periods.
This dependency leads to continuous booking rushes and withdrawal events. On the one hand, the box office potential of hot periods is well known; on the other hand, non-headlining films struggle to become the sole choice for audiences during these times. Hence, the tempting opportunities of major release periods come with significant risks.
For instance, the trend towards oligopoly in the Spring Festival season intensifies this scenario, with only a few films sharing the seasonal success, while others face great challenges. In this context, attempting to find survival space through withdrawal has become a common practice.
However, in the face of a complex and volatile market, film producers should exhibit more caution and rationality in their choices. Behind these instances of withdrawal, there might be unlimited opportunities. For instance, if “Mr. Red Carpet” had not opted to withdraw from its schedule twice and instead released in mid-November as planned, it might have faced fewer competitors, thus realizing the scale benefits enjoyed by other successful genre films.
Suppose the film “Let’s Rock the Sun” had initially abandoned the fiercely competitive Chinese New Year slot and instead focused on marketing for the Qingming festival slot, it would undoubtedly greatly increase its chances of achieving a box office of over 400 million, similar to “I Love You!”, and may even have had the opportunity to recreate another peak in Director Han Yan’s career. If the films “Nothing a Hot Pot Can’t Solve” and “Journey Across the Moon” could switch to release slots that better match their positioning, such as the less competitive New Year, winter holiday, Dragon Boat Festival, or Mid-Autumn Festival slots, their box office takings might not be any worse than they currently are.
Besides, both of these movies are supported by the same production company, Baina Qiancheng. If an influential team were to oversee the planning and implement staggered competition, the operation should have been smooth. So why, as it currently stands, are both movies underperforming in the May Day slot, squeezing each other at the bottom? Let’s hope that everything doesn’t hinge on speculation. Regrettably, once the optimal timing is missed, even the opportunity for a “second life” through withdrawal cannot compensate for various sunken costs, including the audience’s lost interest.
In a market facing constantly changing factors and temptations, refining a more precise scheduling strategy will clearly become a key theme for the development cycle of China’s film industry in the coming period.
ScheduleGame Theory
[ad_2]
